DENBroncos
7-8
13
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LACChargers
8-7
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
10
13
Chargers
7
10
3
14
34
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
341
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
5.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.25
Passing Yards
236
--
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.48
Rushing Yards
83
104
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+4.00
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-3.24
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
23
--
Penalty EPA
-3.37
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model65.9%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.5
Expected Value
+15.0%
Cover Probability
60.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+26.1
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
-6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+25.9
Home QB Adjustment
+19.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
+12.9
Final Difference
114.7
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
19
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
13
17
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
2
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
7
16
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
3
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U