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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 6, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-4
8
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
19
KCChiefs
4-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
8
8
Chiefs
3
10
3
3
19

Spread

KC logo
-10.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
199
389
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
4.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.01
Passing Yards
82
293
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.99
+0.10
Rushing Yards
117
96
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.55
-3.21
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-13
-13
Sack EPA
-5.59
-2.85
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
34
84
Penalty EPA
-2.75
-7.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+16.0
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
244.7
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
12/04
-0.5
48
12/11
-0.2
51
12/25
-10.1
2
01/01
1.1
60
01/08
2.3
71
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
10/01
4.4
78
10/08
1.7
61
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
01/01
8.1
93
01/07
-0.2
51
01/21
3.3
77
01/29
4.7
84
02/12
10.3
97
09/07
1.2
57
09/17
4.8
80
09/24
8.3
95
10/01
-1.0
44
10/08
4.1
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30

EPA

EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
16
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
10
RZ Efficiency
20
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
9
W
W
O
12/25
-37
L
L
O
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/08
3
W
L
O
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
O
10/08
-10
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/07
18
W
W
U
01/21
7
W
L
U
01/29
3
W
W
U
02/12
3
W
W
O
09/07
-1
L
L
U
09/17
8
W
W
U
09/24
31
W
W
O
10/01
3
W
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U