DENBroncos
1-4
8
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
019
KCChiefs
4-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
8
8
Chiefs
3
10
3
3
19
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
199
389
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
4.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.01
Passing Yards
82
293
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
30/41(73%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.99
+0.10
Rushing Yards
117
96
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
4
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.55
-3.21
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-13
-13
Sack EPA
-5.59
-2.85
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
34
84
Penalty EPA
-2.75
-7.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+16.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
244.8
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
20
4
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
10
RZ Efficiency
20
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U