DENBroncos
3-4
23
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
12 mph
30
KCChiefs
6-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
56°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
7
0
9
23
Chiefs
3
13
14
0
30
Spread
+9
Total
PUSH
53
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
340
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
5.9
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.12
Passing Yards
222
291
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.36
Rushing Yards
189
49
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.52
-3.67
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-40
-12
Sack EPA
-10.22
-2.35
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
83
50
Penalty EPA
-9.94
-7.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+42.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
24
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
25
EPA / Pass
26
16
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
23
9
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
13
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U