DENBroncos
5-4
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
12 mph
16
KCChiefs
8-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
14
0
0
14
Chiefs
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
300
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
4.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
182
243
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.09
Rushing Yards
78
57
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-33
-23
Sack EPA
-4.09
-6.68
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
35
10
Penalty EPA
-5.03
-2.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,481
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
10-0
SU
6-4
ATS
3-5-2
O/U