DENBroncos
7-3
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
52°F
5 mph
9
KCChiefs
1-9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
52°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
3
17
Chiefs
6
0
3
0
9
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
264
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
5.8
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
273
116
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
13/26(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.38
Rushing Yards
95
148
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
16
4
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.59
-0.02
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-2.05
-3.87
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-259
Home nfelo
1,361
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+30.2
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
31
6
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U