DENBroncos
6-0
33
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
039
INDColts
4-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
7
3
16
33
Colts
10
14
7
6
37
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
429
334
Total Plays
74
71
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.07
Passing Yards
365
213
Comp/Att
29/50(58%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.04
Rushing Yards
64
121
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.88
+1.11
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-15
Sack EPA
-3.47
-4.29
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
103
52
Penalty EPA
-10.56
-3.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-141
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-32.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+40.3
Market Regression
-24.0
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+40.3
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
22
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
19
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
6
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
2
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-0-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U