DENBroncos
4-9
25
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
013
INDColts
3-10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
15
3
25
Colts
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
464
228
Total Plays
75
53
Yards / Play
6.2
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
253
158
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.08
Rushing Yards
211
70
Rush Attempts
46
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
15
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.34
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-1.89
-1.59
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
80
39
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-7.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,310
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+55.2
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
-19.9
Net QB Adjustment
+15.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
31
15
Fumbles / Game
23
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
18
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
18
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
31
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U