DENBroncos
5-9
11
TBD
FedExField
43°F
7 mph
27
WASCommanders
6-8
TBD
FedExField
43°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
0
0
8
11
Commanders
0
10
3
14
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
386
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.02
Passing Yards
173
--
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.23
Rushing Yards
159
87
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.68
-9.08
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-8.73
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-6.27
-2.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+75.8
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.0
Net QB Adjustment
-29.6
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.8
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
23
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Commanders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
22
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
3
Interceptions / Game
17
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
17
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U