DENBroncos
4-0
51
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
048
DALCowboys
2-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
21
10
13
51
Cowboys
14
6
13
15
48
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
517
524
Total Plays
73
56
Yards / Play
7.1
9.4
EPA / Play
+0.46
+0.47
Passing Yards
--
472
Comp/Att
33/42(79%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
12.8
EPA / Pass
+0.66
+0.72
Rushing Yards
103
52
Rush Attempts
31
15
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
34
24
Passing 1st downs
20
20
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
69%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
6
Red Zone %
86%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
6
5
Red Zone Attempts
7
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.14
-7.75
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-5.18
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
55
81
Penalty EPA
-5.82
-7.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model70.4%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+7.5
Expected Value
+12.8%
Cover Probability
59.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,676
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-28.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+40.6
Market Regression
-11.2
Final Difference
-150.4
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+40.6
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
24
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
29
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Cowboys Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
17
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
11
23
EPA / Rush
3
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
3
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-1-1
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U