nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ giants week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
-
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
82°F
19 mph
13
NYGGiants
-
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
82°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
7
10
27
Giants
0
7
0
6
13

Spread

DEN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
420
314
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
6.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.03
Passing Yards
255
254
Comp/Att
28/36(78%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.05
Rushing Yards
165
60
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-5.02
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-13
Sack EPA
-2.68
-4.08
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
48
Penalty EPA
-7.40
-6.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+44.5
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-17.1
Final Difference
-19.5
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42
12/13
3.8
72
12/19
1.3
52
12/27
-5.4
13
01/03
-7.2
7
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
-4.8
16
10/18
-1.0
38
10/22
3.5
70
11/02
-1.6
32
11/08
-4.3
17
11/15
4.3
75
11/29
-1.5
33
12/13
-12.9
1
12/27
-5.0
15
01/03
-1.3
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Giants Defense
Broncos logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
23
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Giants Offense vs Broncos Defense
Giants logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
32
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
1
W
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/15
-25
L
L
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
12/06
-6
L
W
U
12/13
5
W
W
O
12/19
-29
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-1
L
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-1
L
W
U
11/02
-2
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
P
11/15
10
W
W
U
11/29
2
W
L
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-19
L
L
U
12/20
-14
L
L
U
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
4
W
W
U