DENBroncos
-
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
82°F
19 mph
13
NYGGiants
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
82°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
7
10
27
Giants
0
7
0
6
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
314
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
6.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.03
Passing Yards
255
254
Comp/Att
28/36(78%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.05
Rushing Yards
165
60
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-5.02
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-13
Sack EPA
-2.68
-4.08
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
51
48
Penalty EPA
-7.40
-6.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.0%
Spread Pick
Giants+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
-20.6
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
23
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Giants Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
31
16
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
1-8-1
O/U