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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ giants week 2, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-0
41
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
3 mph
23
NYGGiants
0-1
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
14
11
35
Giants
3
6
7
7
23

Spread

DEN logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
414
376
Total Plays
72
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
353
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.12
Rushing Yards
107
23
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.2
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
10
3rd Down %
53%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.25
-11.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.68
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
132
16
Penalty EPA
-13.31
-3.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,637
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+28.5
Market Regression
+18.0
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
Value
Ptile
11/11
4.6
79
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
12/06
-0.7
45
12/16
-0.1
49
12/23
8.3
93
12/30
9.6
96
01/12
1.4
59
09/05
14.7
100
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
10/28
-4.6
21
11/04
-7.6
7
11/11
-7.3
9
11/25
4.8
80
12/03
2.0
62
12/09
2.3
63
12/16
-7.4
8
12/23
-3.6
26
12/30
5.8
86
09/08
4.3
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Giants Defense
Broncos logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
12

EPA

EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
19
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
2
15
Giants Offense vs Broncos Defense
Giants logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
30
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
22
W
W
O
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
22
W
W
O
12/30
35
W
W
P
01/12
-3
L
L
O
09/05
22
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
5
W
W
O
11/04
-4
L
L
U
11/11
-18
L
L
U
11/25
28
W
W
U
12/03
-1
L
L
U
12/09
25
W
W
O
12/16
-34
L
L
U
12/23
-19
L
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
O
09/08
-5
L
L
O