DENBroncos
1-0
41
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
3 mph
23
NYGGiants
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
14
11
35
Giants
3
6
7
7
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
414
376
Total Plays
72
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
353
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.12
Rushing Yards
107
23
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
3.7
1.2
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
18
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
10
3rd Down %
53%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.25
-11.08
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-1.68
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
132
16
Penalty EPA
-13.31
-3.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+28.5
Market Regression
+17.1
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
17
Yards / Game
1
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
2
15
Giants Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
28
23
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Giants
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U