DENBroncos
1-0
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
7 mph
13
JAXJaguars
0-1
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
7
10
3
23
Jaguars
7
0
0
6
13
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
189
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
302
114
Comp/Att
26/34(76%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.42
Rushing Yards
96
75
Rush Attempts
30
16
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.89
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-4
Sack EPA
-4.28
-1.95
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
101
70
Penalty EPA
-10.38
-6.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+59.8
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.8
Net QB Adjustment
-26.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-126.2
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
25
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14
EPA
EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
21
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U