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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ jaguars week 2, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-0
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
7 mph
13
JAXJaguars
0-1
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
7
10
3
23
Jaguars
7
0
0
6
13

Spread

DEN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
398
189
Total Plays
67
51
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
302
114
Comp/Att
26/34(76%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
3.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.42
Rushing Yards
96
75
Rush Attempts
30
16
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.89
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-4
Sack EPA
-4.28
-1.95
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
101
70
Penalty EPA
-10.38
-6.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,369
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.8
Net QB Adjustment
-26.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-126.9
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
11/29
-0.6
42
12/13
3.8
72
12/19
1.3
52
12/27
-5.4
13
01/03
-7.2
7
09/12
5.2
84
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
09/12
-3.1
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22

EPA

EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
23
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
5
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
25
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jaguars logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14

EPA

EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
21
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
28
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/15
-25
L
L
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
12/06
-6
L
W
U
12/13
5
W
W
O
12/19
-29
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-1
L
W
O
09/12
14
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-4
L
W
U
11/22
-24
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
09/12
-16
L
L
O