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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ jaguars week 8, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-5
21
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
0
17
JAXJaguars
2-5
JAX logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
7
21
Jaguars
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

DEN logo
+1

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
331
305
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
5.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.04
Passing Yards
230
114
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.45
Rushing Yards
101
191
Rush Attempts
28
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.15
-10.77
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-19
Sack EPA
-4.96
-3.97
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-8.53
-5.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+14.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
8.2
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
12/21
-7.6
9
12/26
-0.9
46
01/02
5.4
85
01/09
2.7
73
09/12
3.6
79
09/18
-7.1
8
09/25
-4.7
19
10/02
3.2
77
10/06
-7.5
8
10/17
-4.1
23
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
12/26
1.3
62
01/02
-4.5
21
01/09
2.7
74
09/11
-2.9
29
09/18
6.5
90
09/25
7.3
92
10/02
-5.7
14
10/09
-2.4
33
10/16
3.4
78
10/23
1.9
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Broncos logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12

EPA

EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
27
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jaguars logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
14
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
17
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-4
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-4
L
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/18
7
W
L
U
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
-40
L
L
O
01/09
15
W
W
U
09/11
-6
L
L
O
09/18
24
W
W
U
09/25
28
W
W
O
10/02
-8
L
L
O
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/16
-7
L
L
O
10/23
-6
L
L
U