DENBroncos
2-5
21
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
017
JAXJaguars
2-5
TBD
Wembley Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
7
7
21
Jaguars
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
305
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
5.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.04
Passing Yards
230
114
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.45
Rushing Yards
101
191
Rush Attempts
28
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
18%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.15
-10.77
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-19
Sack EPA
-4.96
-3.97
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
80
54
Penalty EPA
-8.53
-5.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+14.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
8.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Jaguars Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
14
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
13
11
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
17
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U