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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ jets week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
0-3
37
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
6 mph
28
NYJJets
0-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
14
7
13
37
Jets
7
6
3
6
22

Spread

DEN logo
+1

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
359
321
Total Plays
63
75
Yards / Play
5.7
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
192
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.33
Rushing Yards
117
129
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
7
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.08
--
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-54
Sack EPA
--
-12.62
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
94
118
Penalty EPA
-11.97
-12.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+6.2
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+105.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
-109.8
Market Regression
+43.9
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Rypien headshot

B. Rypien

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-109.8
No recent game data available
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
11/17
2.7
70
11/24
7.7
92
12/01
-6.4
14
12/08
-2.0
38
12/12
1.1
61
12/22
-0.5
49
12/29
-2.8
33
09/13
-2.8
25
09/20
-0.3
44
09/27
-7.5
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Broncos logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
24
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
31
24
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
26
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
9
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jets logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25

EPA

EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
28
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
20
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
32
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-4
L
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-20
L
L
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
1
W
L
U
09/14
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-5
L
W
O
09/27
-18
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/24
31
W
W
U
12/01
-16
L
L
U
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/12
-21
L
L
O
12/22
6
W
W
U
12/29
7
W
W
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
-29
L
L
U