nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ jets week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-2
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
8 mph
9
NYJJets
2-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
3
10
Jets
0
6
0
3
9

Spread

DEN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
186
248
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
3.3
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
184
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.63
-0.36
Rushing Yards
126
64
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
3
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
21%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.19
-3.04
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-41
Sack EPA
--
-10.16
Penalties
5
13
Penalty Yards
74
90
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-10.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+185
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
+37.1
Home QB Adjustment
+26.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.2
22
09/15
-4.4
20
09/22
4.8
79
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Value
Ptile
11/27
-4.5
21
12/04
-1.0
45
12/19
-2.1
36
12/25
-2.6
30
01/01
-0.4
49
01/08
-4.7
20
09/11
-7.0
11
09/09
-2.9
28
09/15
-0.6
44
09/19
6.4
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Broncos logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17

EPA

EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
15
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
15
27
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jets logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5

EPA

EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
21
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-25
L
L
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
12/31
7
W
W
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
19
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-21
L
L
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
24
W
W
O
12/17
-30
L
L
U
12/24
2
W
L
O
12/28
-17
L
L
O
01/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
-13
L
L
O
09/15
7
W
W
U
09/19
21
W
W
U