DENBroncos
1-2
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
8 mph
9
NYJJets
2-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
67°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
3
10
Jets
0
6
0
3
9
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
186
248
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
3.3
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.30
Passing Yards
--
184
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.63
-0.36
Rushing Yards
126
64
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
3
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
21%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.19
-3.04
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-41
Sack EPA
--
-10.16
Penalties
5
13
Penalty Yards
74
90
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-10.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
+37.1
Home QB Adjustment
+26.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
17
Interceptions / Game
15
27
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
8
19
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5
EPA
EPA / Play
19
3
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
21
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
17
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U