DENBroncos
3-1
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
5 mph
17
NYJJets
1-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
61°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
14
7
1
25
Jets
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
204
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.3
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.16
Passing Yards
221
173
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.21
Rushing Yards
138
31
Rush Attempts
33
15
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.35
-6.56
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-16
-17
Sack EPA
-2.71
-3.64
Penalties
11
2
Penalty Yards
101
--
Penalty EPA
-8.40
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
Jets+9.5
Expected Value
+19.3%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,645
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-26.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.8
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
-170.7
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
9
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
5
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
17
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
10
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
17
6
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
7
26
RZ Efficiency
32
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U