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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ jets week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-2
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
6 mph
11
NYJJets
0-5
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
0
0
3
13
Jets
6
0
3
0
9

Spread

NYJ logo
+7

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
246
82
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
4.3
1.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.19
Passing Yards
168
-10
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
9/17(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
-0.6
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-1.22
Rushing Yards
78
92
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
12
8
Passing 1st downs
9
2
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.98
--
Sacks
1
9
Sack Yards
-6
-55
Sack EPA
-0.91
-13.31
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
37
15
Penalty EPA
-6.20
-2.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.9%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+14.4
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.8
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
-154.7
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
12/15
-4.6
19
12/19
5.5
82
12/28
3.4
72
01/05
15.5
100
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
09/21
-1.9
37
09/29
7.0
92
10/05
1.5
61
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
-1.1
41
09/15
-2.8
29
09/22
1.9
62
09/29
6.3
86
10/06
-1.9
35
10/13
0.8
53
09/07
7.7
93
09/14
-6.7
9
09/29
8.4
95
10/05
0.9
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Broncos logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27

EPA

EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
13
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
2
Interceptions / Game
16
32
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jets logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2

EPA

EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
10
RZ Efficiency
31
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
18
W
W
P
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/05
38
W
W
U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/05
4
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-26
L
L
O
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O
09/14
-20
L
L
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O