CINBengals
2-1
3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
66°F
12 mph
28
DENBroncos
1-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
66°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3
Broncos
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
159
512
Total Plays
43
80
Yards / Play
3.7
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.20
Passing Yards
106
--
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.32
Rushing Yards
53
186
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
29
Passing 1st downs
3
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
18%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.64
--
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
65
72
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
+13.9
Net QB Adjustment
+74.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-72.2
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-72.2
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
6
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
29
23
Fumbles / Game
14
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
8
1
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
32
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
2
29
Turnover EPA / Game
23
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U