DENBroncos
7-6
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
042
DETLions
9-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
10
7
17
Lions
0
21
7
14
42
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
448
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.31
Passing Yards
204
263
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.45
Rushing Yards
83
185
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.29
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-15
Sack EPA
-9.92
-4.73
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
40
54
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-6.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-16.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
27
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
11
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U