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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ lions week 15, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
7-6
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
42
DETLions
9-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
10
7
17
Lions
0
21
7
14
42

Spread

DET logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
287
448
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.31
Passing Yards
204
263
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.45
Rushing Yards
83
185
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.29
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-15
Sack EPA
-9.92
-4.73
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
40
54
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-6.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+44.8
Base HFA
+45.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-16.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
10/01
4.4
78
10/08
1.7
61
10/12
-8.8
6
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
11/13
2.8
68
11/19
2.2
65
11/26
2.8
68
12/03
-5.2
18
12/10
-1.3
41
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.3
41
10/08
6.0
86
10/15
5.1
82
10/22
-3.5
26
10/30
1.1
56
11/12
6.4
88
11/19
-5.1
19
11/23
4.1
76
12/03
1.8
62
12/10
-9.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Broncos logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
20
28
EPA / Rush
19
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
4
9
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Lions logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
5
27
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30

EPA

EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
11
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
2
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
3
W
P
O
10/08
-10
L
L
O
10/12
-11
L
L
U
10/22
2
W
W
U
10/29
15
W
W
U
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
14
W
W
O
10/08
18
W
W
O
10/15
14
W
W
U
10/22
-32
L
L
O
10/30
12
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
5
W
W
O
12/10
-15
L
L
U