DENBroncos
5-3
36
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
5 mph
14
CARPanthers
2-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
4
1
10
22
Panthers
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
250
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.9
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.39
Passing Yards
295
198
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.38
Rushing Yards
65
52
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
23%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
3
--
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.31
-12.47
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-6
-43
Sack EPA
-5.67
-9.18
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
45
Penalty EPA
-6.29
-4.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-35.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+38.6
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+38.6
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
12
3
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
7
21
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
10
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U