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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ panthers week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-7
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
15 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
7
10
Panthers
7
3
7
6
23

Spread

CAR logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
246
349
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.04
Passing Yards
125
--
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.27
Rushing Yards
121
185
Rush Attempts
19
46
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-3.90
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-7.37
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
44
34
Penalty EPA
-3.17
-4.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,409
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+54.5
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+40.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
6.1
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Value
Ptile
01/09
2.7
73
09/12
3.6
79
09/18
-7.1
8
09/25
-4.7
19
10/02
3.2
77
10/06
-7.5
8
10/17
-4.1
23
10/30
-3.5
25
11/13
-8.5
4
11/20
-2.3
34
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Value
Ptile
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67
10/10
-10.3
4
10/17
-6.1
14
10/24
-10.6
3
10/31
-2.4
35
11/07
-9.5
5
01/02
-10.7
3
01/09
0.5
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Broncos logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
27
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Panthers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10

EPA

EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
1
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
12
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/18
7
W
L
U
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/09
-22
L
L
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
-3
L
W
O
11/06
-21
L
L
O
11/10
10
W
W
U
11/20
-10
L
W
U