DENBroncos
3-7
10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
15 mph
23
CARPanthers
3-8
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
66°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
0
7
10
Panthers
7
3
7
6
23
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
349
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
4.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.04
Passing Yards
125
--
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.27
Rushing Yards
121
185
Rush Attempts
19
46
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
29%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-3.90
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-7.37
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
44
34
Penalty EPA
-3.17
-4.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model48.8%
Spread Pick
Panthers+2.5
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+54.6
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
+40.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
8.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
27
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Panthers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
1
Interceptions / Game
15
11
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U