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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ patriots week 12, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
9-1
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
22°F
22 mph
34
NEPatriots
7-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
22°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
11
7
0
7
0
25
Patriots
0
0
21
10
3
34

Spread

NE logo
+1

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
412
440
Total Plays
86
84
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.04
Passing Yards
132
324
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
34/50(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.13
Rushing Yards
280
116
Rush Attempts
48
31
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
28
27
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
15
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
5
Turnover EPA
-10.18
-15.32
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-20
Sack EPA
-3.87
-8.15
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
85
36
Penalty EPA
-9.40
-3.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,621
Away nfelo
1,671
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-46.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Value
Ptile
09/05
14.7
100
09/15
6.3
88
09/23
11.5
97
09/29
10.7
96
10/06
13.2
99
10/13
2.9
70
10/20
3.0
71
10/27
3.0
71
11/10
7.5
91
11/17
5.0
84
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Value
Ptile
09/08
-1.9
40
09/12
-1.8
40
09/22
-0.9
45
09/29
4.7
82
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-3.6
27
10/20
-8.1
7
10/27
-6.4
13
11/03
10.4
96
11/18
3.2
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Broncos logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28

EPA

EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
19
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Patriots logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5

EPA

EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
13
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
8
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/05
22
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/23
16
W
P
O
09/29
32
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
16
W
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
O
10/27
24
W
W
O
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
2
W
L
U
09/12
3
W
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
3
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
10
W
W
U
11/03
24
W
W
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U