DENBroncos
9-1
31
TBD
Gillette Stadium
22°F
22 mph
34
NEPatriots
7-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
22°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
11
7
0
7
0
25
Patriots
0
0
21
10
3
34
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
440
Total Plays
86
84
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.04
Passing Yards
132
324
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
34/50(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.13
Rushing Yards
280
116
Rush Attempts
48
31
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
27
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
15
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
5
Turnover EPA
-10.18
-15.32
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-20
Sack EPA
-3.87
-8.15
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
85
36
Penalty EPA
-9.40
-3.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-46.1
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
1
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
8
23
EPA / Rush
13
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
32
Interceptions / Game
5
18
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
4
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U