DENBroncos
9-8
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
24°F
13 mph
45
NEPatriots
13-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
24°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
3
0
10
Patriots
14
21
7
3
45
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
509
Total Plays
71
64
Yards / Play
3.5
8.0
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.38
Passing Yards
108
--
Comp/Att
9/26(35%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.66
Rushing Yards
144
146
Rush Attempts
40
30
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
31
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
39%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
6
Red Zone %
33%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.87
-9.94
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-9.44
--
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-1.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+371
Home nfelo
1,690
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+79.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
+5.9
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
27
27
EPA / Rush
10
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U