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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ raiders week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
2-0
23
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
81°F
6 mph
3
OAKRaiders
1-1
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
81°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
3
7
3
23
Raiders
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

DEN logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
372
137
Total Plays
68
47
Yards / Play
5.5
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.44
Passing Yards
--
42
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.0
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.82
Rushing Yards
215
95
Rush Attempts
45
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
9
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.11
-12.60
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-2.81
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
53
Penalty EPA
-6.32
-6.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
-54.1
Final Difference
-38.8
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.2
34
11/16
-2.3
34
11/23
-1.5
40
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
0.5
55
12/11
-3.5
25
12/22
-7.7
7
12/28
3.8
77
09/13
-0.0
49
09/20
2.2
65
J. Russell headshot

J. Russell

Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Value
Ptile
11/02
-9.9
2
11/16
-3.9
22
11/23
1.5
62
11/30
-3.1
28
12/04
-8.5
5
12/14
-1.1
44
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
0.7
56
09/14
-5.9
15
09/20
-9.3
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29

EPA

EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
22
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
29
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
4
W
W
P
11/16
4
W
W
P
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/30
17
W
W
P
12/07
7
W
L
P
12/14
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
5
W
W
U
09/20
21
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-11
L
L
P
11/16
-2
L
W
P
11/23
21
W
W
P
11/30
-7
L
L
P
12/04
-27
L
L
P
12/14
-23
L
L
P
12/21
11
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/14
-4
L
W
O
09/20
3
W
W
U