DENBroncos
2-0
23
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
81°F
6 mph
3
OAKRaiders
1-1
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
81°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
10
3
7
3
23
Raiders
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
137
Total Plays
68
47
Yards / Play
5.5
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.44
Passing Yards
--
42
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.0
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.82
Rushing Yards
215
95
Rush Attempts
45
23
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
9
Passing 1st downs
10
4
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.11
-12.60
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-2.81
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
53
Penalty EPA
-6.32
-6.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
-16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
-54.0
Final Difference
-38.7
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
J. Russell
Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-1-8
O/U