DENBroncos
2-1
23
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
032
OAKRaiders
0-3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
9
0
7
23
Raiders
3
10
3
10
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
385
Total Plays
48
74
Yards / Play
6.2
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.03
Passing Yards
214
173
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.10
Rushing Yards
85
212
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.08
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-15
Sack EPA
-6.21
-4.06
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-1.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+6
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+21.1
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
-7.6
Final Difference
35.2
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
26
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
19
EPA
EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
29
30
EPA / Rush
27
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
20
RZ Efficiency
14
31
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
26
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U