DENBroncos
3-7
14
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
13 mph
21
OAKRaiders
4-6
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
14
14
Raiders
0
14
7
0
21
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
216
348
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
3.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.04
Passing Yards
160
244
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.25
Rushing Yards
56
104
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.93
-5.36
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-7.37
-6.91
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
75
68
Penalty EPA
-6.49
-8.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
+9.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Lynch
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
29
31
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U