nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ raiders week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-7
14
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
13 mph
21
OAKRaiders
4-6
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
0
14
14
Raiders
0
14
7
0
21

Spread

OAK logo
-4

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
216
348
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
3.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.04
Passing Yards
160
244
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.25
Rushing Yards
56
104
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.93
-5.36
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-7.37
-6.91
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
75
68
Penalty EPA
-6.49
-8.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

P. Lynch headshot

P. Lynch

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
10/09
-6.6
9
12/04
-6.5
10
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
12/24
5.1
83
09/10
2.9
73
09/17
7.3
91
09/24
-9.3
4
10/01
-2.7
34
10/15
-3.2
30
10/19
9.7
97
10/29
1.0
60
11/05
0.7
57
11/19
-2.6
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11

EPA

EPA / Play
29
31
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
16
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
31
32
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
2
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
22
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
8
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
3
W
P
O
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-21
L
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-28
L
L
O
11/12
-25
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
10
W
W
U
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-17
L
L
U
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/08
-13
L
L
O
10/15
-1
L
L
U
10/19
1
W
W
O
10/29
-20
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/19
-25
L
L
U