DENBroncos
6-5
29
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
019
OAKRaiders
2-8
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
6
7
13
29
Raiders
0
13
0
6
19
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
369
Total Plays
65
74
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.11
Passing Yards
262
300
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
31/53(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.26
Rushing Yards
63
69
Rush Attempts
22
16
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.56
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-11
-28
Sack EPA
-1.97
-12.06
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
58
44
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-4.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+15.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-25.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U