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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ raiders week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
6-5
29
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
19
OAKRaiders
2-8
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
6
7
13
29
Raiders
0
13
0
6
19

Spread

DEN logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
325
369
Total Plays
65
74
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.11
Passing Yards
262
300
Comp/Att
25/42(60%)
31/53(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.26
Rushing Yards
63
69
Rush Attempts
22
16
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.56
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-11
-28
Sack EPA
-1.97
-12.06
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
58
44
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-4.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+15.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-25.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
-4.4
20
09/22
4.8
79
09/29
-3.7
23
10/06
1.5
59
10/13
1.8
62
10/17
3.0
69
10/27
7.7
92
11/03
-4.7
18
11/10
1.9
62
11/17
9.6
96
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Value
Ptile
12/31
0.1
50
01/06
-4.0
24
09/08
-2.0
34
09/15
-0.2
48
09/22
-2.1
34
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-4.5
20
10/27
0.4
51
11/03
-5.2
15
11/17
2.4
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12

EPA

EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
26
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
19
W
W
U
09/29
1
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-31
L
L
O
11/10
-2
L
W
U
11/17
32
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-12
L
L
U
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-14
L
L
O
09/29
4
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
-5
L
W
U
10/27
-7
L
W
O
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
-15
L
L
O