DENBroncos
6-8
14
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
58°F
14 mph
27
OAKRaiders
3-11
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
58°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
7
7
14
Raiders
1
10
0
10
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
273
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.00
Passing Yards
200
159
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.16
Rushing Yards
100
114
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.71
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-8
Sack EPA
-0.93
-1.98
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
91
50
Penalty EPA
-9.67
-6.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,339
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
32
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
8
3
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
22
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U