DENBroncos
7-7
13
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
017
OAKRaiders
7-7
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
13
0
0
13
Raiders
0
7
7
3
17
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
158
342
Total Plays
40
67
Yards / Play
4.0
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.08
Passing Yards
140
182
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
20/25(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.21
Rushing Yards
18
160
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
1.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
22
Passing 1st downs
4
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
10%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-16.51
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-19
Sack EPA
-3.42
-7.18
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
37
Penalty EPA
-3.68
-5.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-14
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+32.8
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
-16.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U