DENBroncos
12-3
34
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
8 mph
14
OAKRaiders
4-11
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
17
0
3
34
Raiders
0
0
0
14
14
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
255
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
6.3
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.09
Passing Yards
334
191
Comp/Att
34/41(83%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.06
Rushing Yards
124
64
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.57
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
17
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.58
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-16
Sack EPA
-5.89
-2.87
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
56
--
Penalty EPA
-7.52
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model84.2%
Spread Pick
Broncos-10.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-330
Home nfelo
1,385
Away nfelo
1,719
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+25.3
Market Regression
+13.5
Final Difference
-290.5
Model Spread
+12.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
T. Pryor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U