DENBroncos
8-8
14
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
027
OAKRaiders
7-9
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
7
0
7
14
Raiders
7
10
0
10
27
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
359
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.17
Passing Yards
238
230
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.29
Rushing Yards
48
129
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.49
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-34
-14
Sack EPA
-7.62
-3.43
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.75
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+25.3
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
-32.5
Away QB Adjustment
-49.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stidham
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-49.4
Value
Ptile
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-32.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U