DENBroncos
5-3
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
3 mph
41
BALRavens
5-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
0
0
10
Ravens
7
17
14
3
41
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
396
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
4.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.45
Passing Yards
197
269
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
16/19(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
14.2
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+1.02
Rushing Yards
122
127
Rush Attempts
30
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-28
-11
Sack EPA
-7.94
-3.31
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
53
Penalty EPA
-7.35
-6.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+37.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+37.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
15
21
Fumbles / Game
12
29
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
1
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-2-2
O/U