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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ ravens week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
5-3
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
3 mph
41
BALRavens
5-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
57°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
0
0
10
Ravens
7
17
14
3
41

Spread

BAL logo
-9

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
319
396
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
4.7
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.45
Passing Yards
197
269
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
16/19(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
14.2
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+1.02
Rushing Yards
122
127
Rush Attempts
30
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-28
-11
Sack EPA
-7.94
-3.31
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
53
Penalty EPA
-7.35
-6.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+58.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.4
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+37.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.2
22
09/15
-4.5
20
09/22
4.8
79
09/29
-3.8
23
10/06
1.5
59
10/13
1.8
62
10/17
3.0
69
10/27
7.7
92
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+37.2
Value
Ptile
01/20
10.5
98
01/28
-1.1
43
09/05
9.7
96
09/15
0.7
53
09/22
9.1
95
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
10.7
97
10/13
2.3
65
10/21
10.1
97
10/27
4.6
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1

EPA

EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
15
21
Fumbles / Game
12
29
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5

EPA

EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
1
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
1
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
7
W
W
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
19
W
W
U
09/29
1
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
24
W
W
P
01/28
-7
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
P
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
25
W
W
U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/21
10
W
W
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O