DENBroncos
3-8
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
8 mph
10
BALRavens
7-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
3
0
9
Ravens
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
285
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.13
Passing Yards
184
182
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
30/37(81%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.30
Rushing Yards
88
103
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
17%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.64
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-16
Sack EPA
-2.77
-4.38
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
48
15
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-1.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+54.4
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
+28.5
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
5
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
30
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U