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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ ravens week 13, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-8
9
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
8 mph
10
BALRavens
7-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
3
3
0
9
Ravens
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

DEN logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
272
285
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.13
Passing Yards
184
182
Comp/Att
17/22(77%)
30/37(81%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.30
Rushing Yards
88
103
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
17%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.64
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-5
-16
Sack EPA
-2.77
-4.38
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
48
15
Penalty EPA
-4.30
-1.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+54.4
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Value
Ptile
09/12
3.6
79
09/18
-7.1
8
09/25
-4.7
19
10/02
3.2
77
10/06
-7.5
8
10/17
-4.1
23
10/30
-3.5
25
11/13
-8.5
4
11/20
-2.3
34
11/27
-5.3
16
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Value
Ptile
09/18
19.3
100
09/25
9.3
95
10/02
0.5
55
10/09
0.1
53
10/16
0.9
59
10/23
-3.0
28
10/27
4.5
83
11/07
0.5
55
11/20
-1.3
44
11/27
2.9
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense
Broncos logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3

EPA

EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
29
18
EPA / Rush
27
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense
Ravens logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
16
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
5
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
30
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
7
W
L
U
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
U
11/27
-13
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
11
W
W
O
10/02
-3
L
P
U
10/09
2
W
L
U
10/16
-4
L
L
U
10/23
3
W
L
U
10/27
5
W
W
O
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/20
10
W
L
U
11/27
-1
L
L
O