DENBroncos
2-0
20
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
7 mph
26
SEASeahawks
1-1
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Broncos
3
0
0
15
0
18
Seahawks
3
14
0
3
6
26
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
384
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
4.7
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.04
Passing Yards
298
255
Comp/Att
31/50(62%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.00
Rushing Yards
36
129
Rush Attempts
20
37
Yards / Rush
1.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.67
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
26
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.42
-4.99
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-20
Sack EPA
-1.43
-4.96
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
27
34
Penalty EPA
-4.20
-4.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,664
Away nfelo
1,630
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
9
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
5
15
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
1
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
19
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U