nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ steelers week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

DEN logo
DENBroncos
10-3
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
8 mph
34
PITSteelers
8-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
13
0
0
27
Steelers
7
6
7
14
34

Spread

DEN logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
385
377
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
5.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.01
Passing Yards
281
354
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
40/55(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.03
Rushing Yards
104
23
Rush Attempts
25
17
Yards / Rush
4.2
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
14
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
53%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.71
-8.61
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-26
Sack EPA
-3.33
-5.14
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
127
63
Penalty EPA
-12.04
-6.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
59.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+38.7
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-21.6
Net QB Adjustment
+93.7
Home QB Adjustment
+42.6
Away QB Adjustment
-51.1
Market Regression
+7.5
Final Difference
145.5
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-51.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.4
49
11/29
-3.3
27
12/06
-4.4
18
12/13
-1.0
44
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.6
Value
Ptile
12/28
4.3
79
01/03
-1.1
43
09/10
2.6
69
09/20
11.0
98
09/27
-3.3
26
11/01
-6.2
11
11/08
1.2
59
11/29
4.1
79
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Broncos logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
27
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Steelers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
7
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
13
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
6
W
W
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
19
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
O
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
2
W
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-3
L
P
U
10/12
4
W
W
U
10/18
12
W
W
U
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
-6
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
21
W
W
U
11/29
-9
L
L
O
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O