DENBroncos
10-3
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
8 mph
34
PITSteelers
8-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
14
13
0
0
27
Steelers
7
6
7
14
34
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
377
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
5.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.01
Passing Yards
281
354
Comp/Att
21/44(48%)
40/55(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.03
Rushing Yards
104
23
Rush Attempts
25
17
Yards / Rush
4.2
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
28
Passing 1st downs
14
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
53%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.71
-8.61
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-26
Sack EPA
-3.33
-5.14
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
127
63
Penalty EPA
-12.04
-6.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model69.6%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.5
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
59.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+38.3
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-21.4
Net QB Adjustment
+93.7
Home QB Adjustment
+42.6
Away QB Adjustment
-51.1
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
143.9
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-51.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
30
8
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U