DENBroncos
6-5
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
6-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
3
7
7
17
Texans
10
3
3
6
22
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
353
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.08
Passing Yards
164
264
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.06
Rushing Yards
118
89
Rush Attempts
30
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
5
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
0%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
--
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.94
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-22
-28
Sack EPA
-6.09
-6.95
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-8.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+68.9
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
15
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
19
15
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
27
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
24
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
27
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
16
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U