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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ texans week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
11-3
37
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
13
HOUTexans
2-12
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
13
0
21
37
Texans
3
3
7
0
13

Spread

DEN logo
-10

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
511
240
Total Plays
70
66
Yards / Play
7.3
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.22
Passing Yards
397
153
Comp/Att
32/51(63%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.36
Rushing Yards
114
87
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.22
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-23
Sack EPA
-1.46
-5.36
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
67
57
Penalty EPA
-8.73
-6.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model73.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+24.6%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-176.4
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Value
Ptile
10/06
13.2
99
10/13
2.9
70
10/20
3.0
71
10/27
3.0
71
11/10
7.5
91
11/17
5.0
84
11/24
-3.8
25
12/01
8.5
93
12/08
12.6
98
12/12
2.6
68
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
12/23
-5.5
15
12/30
-5.7
14
01/05
3.5
72
01/13
5.3
83
09/09
7.6
91
09/15
0.1
50
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
1.0
57
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-2.8
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Broncos logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23

EPA

EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Texans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5

EPA

EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
22
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
26
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
16
W
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
O
10/27
24
W
W
O
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
O
12/08
23
W
W
O
12/12
-7
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-31
L
L
U
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/20
-1
L
W
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-5
L
L
O
11/24
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
O
12/05
-7
L
L
O
12/15
-22
L
L
U