DENBroncos
11-3
37
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
2-12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
13
0
21
37
Texans
3
3
7
0
13
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
511
240
Total Plays
70
66
Yards / Play
7.3
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.22
Passing Yards
397
153
Comp/Att
32/51(63%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.36
Rushing Yards
114
87
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
20
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.22
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-23
Sack EPA
-1.46
-5.36
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
67
57
Penalty EPA
-8.73
-6.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model73.5%
Spread Pick
Texans+10.0
Expected Value
+24.6%
Cover Probability
62.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-123
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-177.4
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
23
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U