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  1. nfelo...
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  3. broncos @ titans week 4, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
1-2
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
13 mph
20
TENTitans
2-1
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
6
10
26
Titans
0
10
10
0
20

Spread

DEN logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
327
288
Total Plays
76
52
Yards / Play
4.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.04
Passing Yards
308
167
Comp/Att
35/50(70%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.08
Rushing Yards
19
121
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
0.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
29%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.79
-9.24
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-33
-6
Sack EPA
-9.42
-3.10
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
74
111
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-9.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-24.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.7
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Value
Ptile
11/15
4.3
78
11/26
0.5
53
12/06
-3.6
26
12/13
3.2
71
12/20
0.4
53
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
0.1
50
09/12
-0.2
48
09/19
6.0
87
09/26
8.5
94
V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
11/23
3.3
72
11/29
3.8
74
12/06
1.5
60
12/13
3.9
74
12/20
2.8
68
12/25
-5.4
17
01/03
-3.8
25
09/12
3.1
70
09/19
-7.4
8
09/26
-1.6
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Broncos logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20

EPA

EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
12
22
EPA / Rush
30
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
26
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Titans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31

EPA

EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
28
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
10
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-29
L
L
U
11/26
20
W
W
U
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
-12
L
L
O
12/20
-1
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
W
O
01/03
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
17
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
U
12/13
40
W
W
O
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
-25
L
L
O
01/03
4
W
L
U
09/12
25
W
W
O
09/19
-8
L
L
U
09/26
19
W
W
U