DENBroncos
1-2
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
13 mph
20
TENTitans
2-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
54°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
6
10
26
Titans
0
10
10
0
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
288
Total Plays
76
52
Yards / Play
4.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.04
Passing Yards
308
167
Comp/Att
35/50(70%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.08
Rushing Yards
19
121
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
0.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
29%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.79
-9.24
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-33
-6
Sack EPA
-9.42
-3.10
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
74
111
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-9.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-24.3
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+19.7
Market Regression
-29.8
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
12
22
EPA / Rush
30
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
26
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
10
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U