CLEBrowns
3-3
10
TBD
Candlestick Park
67°F
5 mph
20
SF49ers
5-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
0
7
10
49ers
10
7
0
3
20
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
348
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.10
Passing Yards
224
174
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.21
Rushing Yards
66
174
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.92
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-17
-3
Sack EPA
-7.65
-1.23
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
39
40
Penalty EPA
-6.13
-2.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+102.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
24
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
7
Interceptions / Game
9
2
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
27
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
29
4
49ers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
16
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U