CLEBrowns
0-6
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
5 mph
31
CINBengals
2-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
7
0
17
Bengals
7
14
10
0
31
Spread
-11.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
559
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
5.6
9.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.29
Passing Yards
172
288
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.44
Rushing Yards
180
271
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
6.9
9.0
EPA / Rush
+0.21
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.55
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-20
Sack EPA
-2.55
-4.31
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-5.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.3
Market Regression
+35.1
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
12
32
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
1
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U