CLEBrowns
4-2
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
8 mph
34
CINBengals
1-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
48°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
7
7
20
37
Bengals
7
10
3
14
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
468
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
7.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.45
+0.24
Passing Yards
--
387
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
36/48(75%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.78
+0.38
Rushing Yards
82
81
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
31
Passing 1st downs
16
24
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
71%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
9
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.44
-12.46
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-35
Sack EPA
--
-9.90
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
40
45
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
30
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
2-7-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U