CLEBrowns
4-4
41
TBD
Paycor Stadium
56°F
016
CINBengals
5-3
TBD
Paycor Stadium
56°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
1
17
10
7
35
Bengals
7
3
0
6
16
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
348
Total Plays
46
71
Yards / Play
7.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.32
Passing Yards
208
263
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.47
Rushing Yards
153
85
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.13
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-10
-25
Sack EPA
-4.37
-7.36
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
84
31
Penalty EPA
-10.64
-2.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+36.4
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.8
Market Regression
-4.1
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
23
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U