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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ bengals week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-10
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
3 mph
30
CINBengals
4-6
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
3
7
16
Bengals
7
9
7
7
30

Spread

CIN logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
405
361
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.21
Passing Yards
236
209
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.21
Rushing Yards
169
152
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-5
Sack EPA
-6.89
-1.35
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
69
35
Penalty EPA
-9.37
-3.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,286
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
-1.8
Final Difference
213.6
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

D. Kizer headshot

D. Kizer

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.2
23
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-2.0
39
10/01
-7.6
10
10/08
-6.4
14
10/22
-7.4
11
10/29
-2.1
38
11/12
3.3
76
11/19
-7.4
10
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
09/10
-15.7
0
09/14
-2.9
34
09/24
0.7
57
10/01
8.6
95
10/08
-0.3
50
10/22
-6.5
13
10/29
-0.5
48
11/05
-3.4
28
11/12
2.1
68
11/19
0.4
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
4
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
28
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
11
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
-3
L
L
U
10/15
-16
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/29
-17
L
L
O
11/12
-14
L
L
O
11/19
-12
L
L
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/14
-4
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
4
W
W
U
10/22
-15
L
L
O
10/29
1
W
L
O
11/05
-16
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U