CLEBrowns
0-10
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
3 mph
30
CINBengals
4-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
3
7
16
Bengals
7
9
7
7
30
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
361
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
6.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.21
Passing Yards
236
209
Comp/Att
18/32(56%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.21
Rushing Yards
169
152
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
5.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-5
Sack EPA
-6.89
-1.35
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
69
35
Penalty EPA
-9.37
-3.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+242
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,289
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
212.6
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U