CLEBrowns
5-7
10
TBD
Paycor Stadium
47°F
8 mph
23
CINBengals
8-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
47°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
7
0
10
Bengals
0
13
7
3
23
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
363
Total Plays
70
61
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.05
Passing Yards
273
227
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.09
Rushing Yards
71
136
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
-4.36
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-12
Sack EPA
-2.65
-3.17
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
98
36
Penalty EPA
-10.78
-4.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model66.4%
Spread Pick
Browns+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+36.2
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+27.3
Away QB Adjustment
+33.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
118.3
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+33.8
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
18
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
7
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bengals
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U