CLEBrowns
3-6
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
BUFBills
6-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
3
0
13
23
Bills
3
10
9
9
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
357
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
5.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.25
Passing Yards
316
186
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.26
Rushing Yards
80
171
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.47
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.52
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-11
Sack EPA
-2.25
-2.11
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
42
89
Penalty EPA
-7.12
-7.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+204
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+49.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-42.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-42.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
4
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
20
2
Bills Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
7
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
9
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U