CLEBrowns
0-2
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
031
INDColts
0-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
14
0
14
28
Colts
7
21
0
3
31
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
335
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.05
Passing Yards
235
243
Comp/Att
22/47(47%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.11
Rushing Yards
111
92
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.74
-4.21
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-16
Sack EPA
-1.42
-4.17
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
113
99
Penalty EPA
-12.88
-13.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+3.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model40.7%
Spread Pick
Colts+1.0
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
61.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-15.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.1
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
Value
Ptile
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
31
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
31
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U