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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ colts week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-2
28
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
31
INDColts
0-2
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
14
0
14
28
Colts
7
21
0
3
31

Spread

IND logo
+1

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
346
335
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.05
Passing Yards
235
243
Comp/Att
22/47(47%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.11
Rushing Yards
111
92
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.74
-4.21
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-16
Sack EPA
-1.42
-4.17
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
113
99
Penalty EPA
-12.88
-13.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+3.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model40.9%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
61.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.6
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-15.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
64.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Kizer headshot

D. Kizer

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.2
23
09/17
-8.8
5
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.4
59
10/02
-1.7
36
09/17
-7.1
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Browns logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
32
30
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
4
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
32
15
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Colts logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
30
31
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7

EPA

EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
18
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
31
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-25
L
L
U
11/10
-21
L
L
U
11/20
-15
L
L
U
11/27
-14
L
L
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
5
W
W
O
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-21
L
L
U
12/05
31
W
W
O
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
28
W
W
U
12/24
-8
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
L
U
09/10
-37
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
W
U