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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ commanders week 5, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-3
13
TBD
FedExField
73°F
5 mph
34
WASCommanders
3-1
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
73°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
7
13
Commanders
7
17
10
0
34

Spread

WAS logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
212
434
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
3.6
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.06
Passing Yards
108
219
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.03
Rushing Yards
104
215
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.12
-9.46
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-33
-17
Sack EPA
-13.75
-4.79
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
52
31
Penalty EPA
-7.82
-2.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+46.2
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.3
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
09/10
-1.2
41
09/18
-6.4
12
09/24
5.1
82
10/22
-9.7
4
11/05
2.4
67
11/12
-2.3
33
09/08
-8.0
5
09/15
-0.3
47
09/22
-5.8
12
09/29
-2.0
34
J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Value
Ptile
09/08
5.9
84
09/15
-0.7
44
09/23
8.3
93
09/29
7.2
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Browns logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
28
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
22
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Commanders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
2
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
8
32
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
6
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
4
W
W
O
12/17
3
W
P
U
12/24
14
W
W
O
12/28
17
W
W
O
01/07
-17
L
L
O
01/13
-31
L
L
O
09/08
-16
L
L
O
09/15
5
W
W
U
09/22
-6
L
L
U
09/29
-4
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-35
L
L
O
12/03
-30
L
L
O
12/17
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-17
L
L
U
01/07
-28
L
L
O
09/08
-17
L
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
09/29
28
W
W
O