CLEBrowns
1-3
13
TBD
FedExField
73°F
5 mph
34
WASCommanders
3-1
TBD
FedExField
73°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
7
13
Commanders
7
17
10
0
34
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
212
434
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
3.6
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.06
Passing Yards
108
219
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.03
Rushing Yards
104
215
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.12
-9.46
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-33
-17
Sack EPA
-13.75
-4.79
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
52
31
Penalty EPA
-7.82
-2.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+46.2
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+42.3
Home QB Adjustment
+31.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
28
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
22
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
17
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
27
27
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
2
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
8
32
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U