CLEBrowns
6-9
24
TBD
FedExField
59°F
9 mph
10
WASCommanders
7-7
TBD
FedExField
59°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
14
7
24
Commanders
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
260
Total Plays
53
68
Yards / Play
5.7
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.16
Passing Yards
155
124
Comp/Att
9/18(50%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.29
Rushing Yards
146
136
Rush Attempts
30
37
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.49
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-14
-19
Sack EPA
-5.05
-4.59
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
24
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-1.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model48.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-8.9
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
20
8
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
11
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Commanders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
12
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
23
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
25
22
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
23
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U