CLEBrowns
2-1
49
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
038
DALCowboys
1-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
24
10
8
49
Cowboys
14
0
0
24
38
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
56.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
510
572
Total Plays
73
82
Yards / Play
7.0
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.13
Passing Yards
201
483
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
41/59(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.19
Rushing Yards
309
89
Rush Attempts
41
20
Yards / Rush
7.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
35
Passing 1st downs
14
29
Rushing 1st downs
16
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-14.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-1
-21
Sack EPA
-1.70
-10.26
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
40
65
Penalty EPA
-2.89
-7.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+26.2
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
16
23
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
18
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
11
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Cowboys Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
13
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U