CLEBrowns
3-5
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
7 mph
39
MIADolphins
6-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
3
7
17
Dolphins
7
10
13
9
39
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
491
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
4.8
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.33
Passing Yards
185
296
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
26/33(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.53
Rushing Yards
112
195
Rush Attempts
24
33
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-6
Sack EPA
-6.77
-1.25
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
52
43
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-4.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+8.8
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+84.7
Home QB Adjustment
+40.4
Away QB Adjustment
-44.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-44.3
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+40.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
24
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
19
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
10
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U